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"SETH KESHAL. NEVADA. 7/3/21I had Nevada going to Trump by a small margin. Others like Robert Barnes realized it would be mega rigged, and called it as such.GOP candidate has to get in the high 40s in Clark Co. to have a shot here. It is nearly 2/3 of the vote and corrupt to the core. Party ID moved almost 5 points in favor of GOP, signifying a huge move in favor of Trump (look at column history with new amount of registered Rs). Party ID trended D from 2012-16 but Trump killed it with independents and made huge gains. This year should have been much bigger, and though the margin % of victory for D was smaller, he lost the county by more votes. Tons of dead voters in NV, and other illegal voters.Washoe (Reno) is harder to figure out. The trend was very slightly in favor of Democrats, but depending on behavior of independents, coudl have fluctuation in results. As such, it's hard to smell anything here. In a state with a narrow margin, a little cheating can cause big issues.The rest of the counties (14 + Independent City Carson City) Trended as expected. I only missed by 500 votes (in case you wondered how accurate party ID is in predicting).Here are the guts on Clark and Washoe.In Clark, Dems added a lot of new voters (how many were alive during registration process is key - Jim Marchant, if elected Sec of State, just may be able to figure that problem out for us); however, they were dwarfed by GOP. Trump blows away GWB 2004 gain with 111k NEW votes from 2016 when he nearly won NV (and almost certainly did in a fair race), but of course Biden comes up with a 119k GAIN in new votes despite the huge GOP registration gain advantage. Obama had the previous record of 99k, but had a tremendous shift in voter ID to back up those gains.Washoe on the right - numbers are hard to crack without firsthand knowledge. Any of you Reno sleuths with inside baseball or evidence, please notify me below.I believe Trump carried NV by 75-125k votes."###